Deal or No Deal?

October 2, 2025

Friend,

Why you're getting this: this is my Friends Newsletter; a place where I whisper the stuff no one puts on pitch decks.

A few years ago, I got an acquisition offer.

On paper? It looked great.
$8 million. 7x EBITDA. Big name buyer.
But something felt off.

The terms were fuzzy.
The buyer seemed slippery.
And the lawyer kept calling everything “market standard,” which is code for “you’re about to get screwed.”

I turned it down.

Three months later, I watched that same buyer gut a friend’s business; fired the team, changed the name, and nuked the brand equity overnight.

It would’ve killed everything I built.

Since then, I’ve bought dozens of companies (50+, actually) and talked hundreds of founders through exits.
Some got rich and rode into the sunset.
Others got wrecked by bad deals they didn’t see coming.

So how do you know if your offer is actually fair?

Let’s get into it.

1. Ignore the Headline Number

I’ve seen term sheets that said $10M but only paid out $3M.
The rest was funny money:

  • Earn-outs you’ll never hit
  • Equity in a shell company
  • “Performance bonuses” tied to growth in a recession

The number on the first page of the PDF is irrelevant.

What matters:

  • How much hits your bank account
  • When
  • And what you have to do to earn it

Don’t get blinded by commas.

2. Who’s Writing the Check?

There are only three types of buyers:

  • Strategic (big company, maybe a competitor)
  • Private Equity (spreadsheet samurai)
  • Founder-backed (someone like me)

I always tell founders this:
I’d rather sell to someone I can call on a Sunday than someone who needs board approval to order pens.

👉 Internal Link: What It’s Really Like to Sell to Tiny

3. Watch for Structure Traps

Here’s what kills deals:

  • Deferred payments: “We’ll pay the rest in 24 months…” (you won’t see it)
  • Earn-outs: “We’ll give you $2M if revenue grows 40%…” (it won’t)
  • Equity rollovers: “You’ll own 10% of NewCo!” (they’ll dilute you)
  • Consulting contracts: “Just stick around for 3 years…” (it’s a job)

Clean deal = Clean mind.

4. Ask Yourself This: Would I Work for Them?

If the deal involves a transition period…

Imagine yourself reporting to them.
On Zoom. Monday morning.
Would you enjoy it?

If not?

Don’t sell to them.

Culture clash will cost you more than any missed earn-out.

5. Where’s the Money Coming From?

Most founders don’t ask the obvious question:
“How are you paying for this?”

  • If it’s cash from their bank account → good
  • If it’s debt → expect pressure
  • If it’s from LPs → expect exit pressure (and possibly a flip in 18 months)

Ask to see the capital stack.
You’re not being rude. You’re being smart.

6. Know Your “F*** You” Number

Every founder should write this down:

The number where, if I walk away with it, I feel proud, free, and done.

If the offer comes in below that; no matter how shiny; walk.

Your business is worth what makes you sleep well at night.

7. Second Bites Are the Secret Weapon

Everyone obsesses over the first check.

But the second one; the part where you stay in for 10% and watch someone else grow the thing?

That’s where the real money is.

We structure our deals to let founders:

  • Take 70–80% off the table
  • Keep 20–30% as upside
  • Step back, not out

We’ve had founders make more on the second bite than the first.

👉 Internal Link: $1M to $10M Revenue? Here’s What Buyers Like Tiny Look For

8. Diligence Is a Mirror

Want to know what your post-acquisition life will feel like?

Watch how they handle diligence.

  • Do they respect your time?
  • Are they organized?
  • Are they honest about snags?

Diligence is the relationship without the PR filter.
Pay attention.

9. Backchannel the Buyer

Every founder I’ve bought from gets a call from our other sellers.
Because I tell them to.

Ask for 2–3 references.
Founders they’ve acquired before.

If they hesitate or spin it? Run.

Want to see what founders say about selling to me?
We put it in writing.
Internal Link: What It’s Really Like to Sell to Tiny

10. If It Feels Off, It Is

I can’t count how many times founders told me:

“I ignored my gut because the offer was just too good.”

Six months later?
They’re miserable, stuck in earn-out hell, with lawyers on speed dial.

Trust your spidey sense.
Doubt = deal breaker.

Internal Link: Fire Fast, Fail Fast: The One-Strike Rule

FAQs: How to Know If an Offer Is Fair

Is a high multiple always better?
No. I’d take a clean 4x over a sketchy 7x with strings.

What’s the average multiple for SaaS/agency/ecom?
SaaS: 3–7x ARR
Agency: 3–5x profit
Ecom: 2–4x SDE

Do I need a broker?
Only if you want multiple bidders and don’t mind a long process. We usually do founder-to-founder, quietly.

How long does a deal usually take?
2–3 months from LOI to close. More if you bring in bankers.

Should I get legal advice?
Yes. Hire a lawyer who’s closed M&A deals before. Not your cousin.

What if the buyer’s equity offer seems vague?
Vague = scam. Ask for liquidation prefs, dilution rights, and voting terms.

How do I value my business fairly?
Start with profit. Then factor in growth, churn, team, and moat.

How do I know if the buyer’s legit?
Ask to speak with founders they’ve bought from. Always.

The Truth About “Fair”

The offer is fair if:

  • You understand every term
  • You don’t feel resentment
  • You’d do it again in hindsight

It’s unfair if:

  • You’re confused
  • You feel rushed
  • Or the buyer seems like a snake with a spreadsheet

You don’t get to redo your exit.

Make sure you can look back and say:

“That deal made my life better.”

If not? No deal.

Until Next Time…

If you’re sitting on an offer and wondering whether to take it, walk away from it, or burn it…

Here’s my advice:
Take a breath.
Talk to a founder who’s done it.
Read the damn contract.

Then decide like your future self is watching.

Because one day, they will be.

—Andrew

Did this help? Say thanks by checking out one of my businesses:

Follow me on Twitter/X → @awilkinson
Forwarded this newsletter? Subscribe here

The Never Enough Newsletter
Sign up for Andrew's weekly newsletter for insider tips, reflections, and personal tool recommendations.
Enter your email and
sign up for free right now.
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.